Prediction of probability of bankruptcy in the context of evaluation of the enterprise economic sustainability

Тетяна Вадимівна Пономаренко


Introduction. Evaluation of economic sustainability of the enterprise is an indicator of the effectiveness of management decisions at the company. It updates the perspective of selection of the most adequate tools for its analysis. Systematization of all approaches for determination of the level of economic stability has allowed the authors to single out the following groups: financial and monitoring; crisis and probabilistic; aggregated and functional; benchmarking; normative and targeted.

Purpose. The financial evaluation of economic viability (monitoring and crisis and probabilistic) is considered the most commonly used one. Accordingly, the purpose of the article is to define the complexity and the prospects of its use, and the level of predictive value.

The method (methodology). To get results we have used the following methods: method of theoretical generalization and systematization (for a typology of approaches as for the evaluation of economic sustainability in general, and prediction of the probability of bankruptcy in particular); method of induction and deduction (to determine causal connections of formation of economic stability); methods of statistical analysis (for diagnostic predictive value and complexity of models the probability of bankruptcy).

Results. The traditional format of evaluation of economic viability is based on indicators of capital structure and efficiency of its usage. Statistical data of Ukrainian industrial enterprises for 2007-2014 allowed noting the high proportion of debt in the structure of sources of capital sources, which consist mainly of current liabilities, and significant deviation productivity and profitability of assets. Their dynamics is correlated to the crisis in the economy. Financial and monitoring cut of the evaluation of economic stability is completed by generalization of capabilities of predicting the probability of bankruptcy.  Inadequate use of foreign models that do not take into account the specifics of Ukrainian business is proved by the empirical data. Use of domestic models does not allow to make definite conclusions. Despite the high probability of insolvency, national industries not only exist for a long period, but have promising opportunities for development. Theattention is focused on the fact that the financial indicators reflect the effects of companies activity only after the event. The reason for their decline is a contravention of the parameters of constructive engagement with stakeholders. They are a source of resources for the enterprise. The attention is paid to the fact that the complex format of evaluation of economic viability leads to the need to consider a wide range of divergent parameters (financial, material and non-material nature) and complex causal relationships between them.


economic stability; evaluation; financial stability; bankruptcy; financial performance; industrial plants; food plants; steel mills; machine-building enterprises

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Science Works Journal "Ekonomichnyy analiz"

ISSN 1993-0259 (Print)  ISSN 2219-4649 (Online) DOI: 10.35774/econa

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