Theoretical and applied aspects of identification of activity risks of oil and gas enterprises

Abstract

Introduction.  Taking into account that in Ukraine most of the main fields as for the reserves and output of oil are on their final stage of mining, the investigation of risks of the oil and gas enterprises on post-investment stage has become very actual. The risks estimation by the newest methods which are the most perspective in conditions of business-environment uncertainty is considered in the article.  The chosen line of research is determined by those  scientists-economists who pay attention to researching “project risks at pre-investment stage”.  It is also caused by the lack of complex experimental studies of specific risks of domestic oil and gas enterprises, which could provide the understanding of the estimation technique.

Purpose. The aim of this article consists of the following items: 1) to range risk-factors within the relevant group of risks on probability of their occurrence with the purpose of creation the set of rules on the basis of the previously carried out coordinated expert estimation of specific risk factors of oil and gas production enterprises; 2) to prove the applicability of methods of the fuzzy logic theory and neural networks for activity risks analysis and its forecasting of such enterprises in subsequent researches.

Method (methodology).  It has been made a hypothesis of existence of relationships between probability of certain risk and its degree of impact on financial and economic activity of the investigated enterprises in order to rank oil and gas enterprises activity risk factors on probability of their occurrence.  For confirmation (refutation) of hypothesis, the regression model which best of all corresponds to the studied number of experimental data is selected for every risk factor in Matlab Curve FittingToolbox.  The model selection for every risk factor is carried out on the basis of the comparative analysis.

Results.  According to results, risk factors of oil and gas enterprises within the limits of risk groups are ranked on probability of their occurrence.  On the basis of comparative analysis of advantages and lacks of risks quantitative assessment methods, the method based on application of fuzzy logic theory is chosen to be used in subsequent researches.  The fuzzy modeling system of oil and gas production enterprises risks which probability of occurrence is the highest will be worked out in future.