Modelling the dynamics of pension contributions accumulation in non-governmental pension funds

Abstract

Introduction. Pension provision in any country depends both on the state of the national economy and on the state regulation of social processes. The solidarity pension system in Ukraine does not provide a decent standard of living. Alternative, which allows creating an additional source of pension benefits, which are guaranteed by the state, and reducing the financial burden on the state, are non-state pension funds. Non-state pension funds provide non-state pension provision services by individualizing the accumulation of funds. Their main purpose is to ensure that people receive additional mandatory state pension insurance payments.

After analysing different approaches to improving the system of non-state pension funds, the main indicators influencing pension payments are revealed.

Purpose. The article aims to model the dynamics of key indicators, on which the payment of pensions in non-state pension funds depends.

Methodology. In the process of writing a paper, we have used a number of scientific methods. The system approach is used as one of the main methods of scientific research. The MARSPline module is a component of Data Mining technology in the application package Statistica, techniques of mathematical modelling, in particular approximating polynomials in the process of modelling the dynamics of receipts and payments. The use of actuarial methods helps show how to determine the accumulated amount on individual accounts of participants in non-state pension funds.

Results. Different methods and approaches to the evaluation of the activity of non-state pension funds have been analysed. The use of the sixth grade polynomial has made it possible to follow the dynamics of contracting for subsequent periods.

It is determined by actuarial methods of accumulated amount on individual pension accounts with different options for contributing and charges interest thereon, allowing depositors to predict the amount of their investments.

Using the MARSPline module Statistics program is constructed: a regression model of the dependence of a retirement asset on one person from contributions and investments of investments; Dependence of pension payments on contributions to individual accounts, income from investment of assets, expenses and the number of paid pensions, which allows calculation of future payments to participants, is revealed.

The application of the fourth-level approximation polynomial makes it possible to determine the amounts of future retirement benefits in dynamics.