Analysis and forecasting of the public budget expenditure of Ukraine

Тetiana Kravchenko, Marina Vlasenko


Introduction. In modern conditions of growing crisis phenomena in the global economy, the development of each country's economy is inevitably accompanied by the need to overcome such global problems as aggravation of inter-country competition in the world energy market, financial expansion of transnational financial corporations, global warming and the global food crisis, migration of the population between rich and poor countries, information wars between leading global players in the sphere of influence. The combination of these and other factors in the context of deepening globalization with each one increases their influence on the development of the national economy of developing countries and post-Soviet countries, which stipulates them to forecast state expenditures in terms of separate articles, to budget them in short and long-term periods, to adjust plans in accordance to their execution or non- execution.

Purpose. The article aims to forecast the expenditures of the state budget of Ukraine for 2018-2021 with the help of a regressive multivariate model on the basis of annual social and economic macro indicators of Ukraine.

Method (methodology). The general scientific and economic methods are used for the achievement of the given task. They are the method of system and structural analysis, method of analysis and synthesis, method of scientific generalization, statistical method, method of comparative analysis, method of analogies and modelling. Methods of econometric analysis, such as regression method, are also used in this research.

Results. The results of the study proved the feasibility of using an econometric approach to assessing the expenditures of the state budget. Public debt, unemployment rate and GDP deflator are recommended to be used as interdependent indicators. According to the results of regression analysis it is established the relationship between these indicators is. On the basis of the model, the forecast has been made for 2018-2021 years. A comparative description with the proposed forecasts has been made by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine. The directions for improving the optimization or effective use and sending of budget expenditures with the aim to improve the quality of auditing the use of budget funds have been proposed.


public finances; econometric multifactor model; model verification; state budget expenditures; prognostication; GDP deflator

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Science Works Journal "Ekonomichnyy analiz"

ISSN 1993-0259 (Print)  ISSN 2219-4649 (Online) DOI: 10.35774/econa

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