Methodical approach to tax risk assessment of business entities based on economic and statistical methods

Abstract

Introduction. Tax risk assessment and management is an important component of maintaining a stable financial position for business entities. In the context of the further transformation of the national tax system, objective assessment of tax risks in order to minimize their negative financial consequences will become a priority.

Purpose.The article aims to develop a methodological approach to the assessment of tax risks at the micro level using economic and statistical methods.

Method (methodology). Tax risks can be assessed on the basis of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The latter, which make it possible to clearly identify the degree of individual types of risk, include economic, statistical and analytical methods. In the course of the study such economic and statistical methods as calculation of average values, indicators of variation, correlation analysis are applied. The results of the assessment using these methods can have both standardized and analytical characters. Indicators, which reflect the level of risk selected by the entities of the tax regime, are established by the current tax law and selected for research. They include total taxes paid, fees and charges, current payables, tax burden. The taxpayer sample consists of 22 Ukrainian gas distribution operators.

Results. The results obtained over several years have made it possible to assess the level of riskiness of the tax policy implemented by the surveyed enterprises. Further areas of study of the possibilities of applying the considered and other economic and statistical methods to assess the tax risks of economic entities include examining the feasibility of use of the methods of regression analysis and analysis of elasticity coefficients to assess the sensitivity of the tax burden on changes in relevant factors.