Demographically-determined changes in public spending on education in Ukraine in the context of fiscal sustainability

Abstract

Introduction. Ensuring the sustainability of the public finance system forms the basis for sustainable development and growth of the national economy. The sustainability of the public finance system is influenced by both macro-financial indicators and indicators of government spending and debt. It is well known that the demographic burden on the budget will grow in the future. This will be manifested in an increase of government’s social spending. Therefore, studies of the impact of demographically-driven costs on the sustainability of public finances in the future are relevant. Insufficiently studied – in this particular context – are the government’s spending on education, which led to the choice of the subject of the study.

Purpose. The purpose of the research is in analytical assessment of the impact of changes in the volume of spending on education (caused by the demographic aging in Ukraine) on budgetary sustainability.

Method (methodology). The methodological basis of the study is the theoretical provisions of the economic science of public finance in general and public funding of education in particular. The article uses general scientific methods of theoretical and empirical knowledge: analysis and synthesis of data on financing of various levels of education and their age structure; mathematical modeling and forecasting in assessing the demographic impact on public finance’ sustainability; systemic analysis of the results.

Results. The article reflects the main results of the analysis of demographically determined trends in the volume of financing of various levels of education in Ukraine, determines the age proportions of financing of education in the base year and decomposes the corresponding spending by the age structure of the population; changes in the volume of budget financing of various levels of education in Ukraine in the medium and long term (taking into account forecasts of demographic aging of the population), estimates the impact of demographically determined changes in the volume of budget financing of education on the sustainability of public finance in the medium term. The results can be applied in budget planning, in the development of a budget declaration and program-targeted documents regarding financing of the education sector in Ukraine.