Migration risks and threats to the stable development of the national economy as strategic objects of regulatory policy

Abstract

Introduction. Stable development of the national economy in the context of globalization, and consequently the high level of migration activity of the population, correlates with the effectiveness of state policy of migration management. Socio-economic results of regulatory policy are determined by proactive mechanisms for managing migration risks and threats that have a significant impact on the socio-economic and demographic system of the country (GDP, inflation, consumer demand, capitalization of human potential, population, etc.).

Purpose. Identification of migration risks and threats for the donor country and the recipient country of human resources as an element of ensuring the stable development of the national economy.

Method (methodology). Theories of migration, securitization, economic development, and risk management became the theoretical and scientific-methodical basis of the research. During research it is used such methods and approaches as logical generalization and synthesis are used for formation of the basic conclusions and offers of research, graphic for visualization of the results of identification of migration risks and threats.

Results. It is established that migration risks are losses of the economic system and social sphere of the country due to the outflow of human resources and negative consequences that arise because of inefficient management of migration transfers. Migration risks for the donor country are divided into two channels (money transfers and human resources). Considering the channel of human resources outflow, three spheres of migration threats were identified: demographic (deepening demographic crisis, lack of capitalization of human potential determinants, increasing divorce rates, declining marriage rates, rising mortality rate among economically active population, population decline, social depopulation). outflow of intellectual elite, deepening social inequality, shortage of workers, spread of social orphanhood, distant and multinational families, disappearance of the middle class, devaluation of higher education) and economic (reduction of GDP, increasing labour market imbalance, increasing inflation due to inflation), reduction of business income, transformational changes in the capital and labour markets), the strengthening of which leads to systemic risks.