Forecasting losses of russian military equipment and personnel in Ukraine

Abstract

Introduction. The hybrid war waged by the russian federation against Ukraine turned into a full-scale military invasion in February 2022. One of the components of Russian military losses in the war is the loss of equipment and personnel.

The purpose of the study is to forecast losses of Russian military equipment and its personnel in Ukraine.

Methodology. In the process of writing the article, a systematic approach was used as one of the main methods of scientific research; properties of time series, in particular, the Arima model, for determining forecasts. Arima(p,q)(D,Q) was used to model the forecast dynamics of Russian personnel losses in Ukraine. Forecasting losses of Russian equipment is described by Arima(p,d,q).

The results. Based on the data analysis of the time period, from February 24, 2022 to March 7, 2023, a conclusion was made about the possibility of using the properties of time series, in particular, the use of time series forecasting by Arima methods. The following models were built: Arima (1,0,1)(0,1,1) – to forecast Russian personnel losses; Arima (1,0,1) – forecasting Russian equipment losses in Ukraine. The performance of these models was checked for adequacy. Based on the obtained models, the forecast for the next seven days is an increase in russian military losses of personnel with a decrease in losses of equipment units in Ukraine.