Correlative-regressive analysis of the consequential technogenic damages in the national economy

Abstract

Introduction. Investigation of the relationship between the destructive influence of business enterprises on the environment and society and the effect which is caused by this influence (which is described by the concept of indirect teсhnogenic damage)has been conducted at the level of the national economy. The solution of this problem is in determination of the morbidity and mortality levels caused by the diseases as a result of an established relationship between the amount of technogenic load and quality of life among population.

Purpose. In order to study indirect teсhnogenic (man-made) damages in the national economy the following objectives have been established: 1) the interdependencies between the amount of pollution (emissions of pollutants into the air, discharges into water and the resulting waste) and deteriorating of health among the population of Ukraine on the base of multicorrelative-regressive economic-mathematical models; 2) conducting of the economic evaluation and prediction of the required amounts of reimbursement for health care of people living in a polluted environment.

Results. The study of indirect teсhnogenic damage in the national economy has allowed us to establish the following things: interdependences between the amount of pollution (emissions of pollutants into the air, discharges into water and the resulting waste) and deterioration of health in Ukraine (morbidity and mortality) set in the interval 1992 - 2012 by multivariate correlative-regressive analysis. The built regressive economic-mathematical models for disease levels have allowed predicting their values in 2013 and 2014. The economic evaluation and prediction of the required volumes of reimbursement for health of people living in polluted environment have shown a significant increase of costs on health care in optimistic forecast and their rapid growth in pessimistic forecast. The results can be practically used to establish the amounts of compensation and to seek additional funding to cover the indirect losses to the national economy, which is the basis for further research.