Tactical forecasting of demand as a tool of overcoming of imbalances in production and consumption of enterprise products

Abstract

Introduction. The paper investigates some questions about the methodological support of short-term forecasting of market indicators. It has been defined the role of of tactical demand of forecasting as a tool to overcome short-term imbalances in the market. It has been proved the feasibility of using an adaptive approach in the short term and developed the model of tactical demand forecasting for products, which combines the principles of exponential smoothing factor and component.

Purpose of the article is to develop a model of tactical demand forecasting depending on temperature, which would allow the company to eliminate imbalances between production and consumption of products and to adjust production and sales strategy for the market in response to changes in market conditions.

Method (methodology). Theoretical and methodological basis of the article are the fundamentals of economic theory, scientific works of leading Russian and foreign scientists in the field of marketing in general and market research in particular. In order to develop the model, we have applied the method of mathematical modeling.

Results. The developed model can serve as a tool for adaptation to spontaneous market. It allows to gradually adjust developed production and sales strategy in accordance with changes in market conditions, unpredictable market fluctuations, that is, to adequately respond to the uncertainty and risk inherent in the external environment. The model can be used as a tool for addressing imbalances between production and consumption of products that will reduce the risk of deficit or surplus products on the market and optimize the allocation of available resources manufacturers.