Cluster analysis of evaluation of crisis state of engineering enterprises

Abstract

The article is devoted to solving methodological problems of analysis of state and modeling of current and strategic activities of domestic engineering companies in crisis conditions. The current state of Ukraine's economy in general and engineering companies in particular demonstrates the need to adopt innovative solutions as for the development of methods of assessment of enterprises state and the use of this technique in practice. One of the major contradictions in the analysis of these phenomena and processes is the consideration of  the single-level parameters, or micro, meso or, macro-levels. In such circumstancesin order to provide a significant macroeconomic effect microeconomic effect can sometimes be neglected. Therefore, it has been conducted the multivariate statistical cluster analysis of engineering companies of Poltava Oblast during the period of 2011-2013 in the package STATISTICA with the consideration of such a conflict of interests. In our study, the attention is focused on four main groups of indicators (profitability, financial evaluation stability, liquidity, business activity) according to data of ten engineering companies. Hierarchical agglomerative procedure has made it possible to consistently combine the groups pf elements: firstly, of the closest ones and then of the most distant from each other in terms of economic performance. It has been proposed to use the method of bringing data to a common scale by using the method ofrationing. It gives a possibility to claster the companies into crisis, pre-crisis and non-crisis. It has been carried out neuronet clustering of enterprises on the basis of self-organizing maps of Kohonen with the use of Deductor Studio. The obtained groups of engineering companies are analysed. The conclusions as for their state and prospects are made. These results enable a comprehensive study of the status and prospects of not just one individual enterprise, but also their groups and the industry in general.It also allows the adoption of both individual and industry solutions, taking into account location the company in one or another cluster. On this basis, the basic characteristics of red, orange, yellow, salad and blue clusters of machine-building enterprises with their economic characteristics are formulated. This structuring provides a systematic basis to overcome the contradiction between the macro, meso and micro needs in a modern national economy.