Stability and instability in the oscillations cycles of economic indicators of Ukraine

Abstract

Introduction. The dynamic nature of the world economy is a cause of variability. It stimulates the development being in dynamic equilibrium. The ups and downs in the behavior of economic systems indicate cyclic recurrence. It suggests the existence of a law or function that creates this behavior for a long time. There are some factors insignificantly modifing the behavior of the economic system and others forming a new trend, sometimes lead to the destruction of the old behavior or crisis. Knowledge of the lawsof behavior of the simple and complex systems would answer the question: if crisis is a sign of inefficiency of the economic process, is maintenance stability justified by significant financial and other costs in these conditions.

Purpose is to reconstract the  phase portraits for identification of the behavior of simple and complex economic indicators for monthly data of 2004-2014 such as exchange rate, PFTS index, trading volume on the stock exchange, budget balance in Ukraine.

Method (methodology). Fourier analysis is applied to convert trigonometric series. Basic DOG wavelet (on Gaussian differences) has been used used to improve the spatial localization method.

Results. During 2004-2014 the behavior of exchange rate and trading volume on the stock exchange formed stable cycles. Soft befurcation in harmonicity fluctuations in the PFTS index reflects sensitivity to economic conditions. Chaotic oscillations in changing direction and trajectory fractures are behavior characteristics of the budget balance. It indicates budget balance unstability of Ukraine.