Regression analysis of factors that determine food consumption in regions of Ukraine

Abstract

Management decisions to ensure food security of the country and its regions involve the study of regional characteristics consumption of foods and the factors that affect the amount and structure of consumption on the basis of empirical data. A powerful tool for solving these problems can be the methods of economic-mathematical modeling methods in particular regression analysis.

The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect food consumption in the regions of Ukraine using regression models. On the basis of statistics during the period from 2000 till 2013 on consumption of basic food products by methods of cluster analysis it has been singled out three groups of regions which have a close relationship with the geography and socio-economic development of regions. Evaluation of regression models is carried out on the basis of the average of the indicators for the clusters. It has been constructed two-factor regression model, which considers the simultaneous effect on the consumption of basic food production volumes of the appropriate product and disposable income of the population. The results of regression analysis show that consumption on regions of Ukraine relatively expensive foodstuffs, including meat, positively depends on disposable income, while consumption of bread and potatoes has a negative relationship with income. It is shown that in the first cluster, which includes industrialized regions, leading impact on the level of food consumption is made by the amount of disposable income. In the second cluster, which is formed in regions with strong agriculture, on the contrary there is a significant impact of food production on the volume of consumption. In the third cluster, which includes less developed regions with the lowest incomes, it has been received a significant dependence on consumer disposable income for all the basic food groups. Positive dependence of consumption on production has been found out for eggs, vegetables and potatoes.